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With the exact same heatgun and very similar setup... starting with everything cold - using high all the way - with 3 cups of beans - I'll regularly hit first crack about 8 minutes. 4 cups of beans - 10 minutes. On low heat all the way, first crack will start around 12 minutes with 3 cups of beans.

I have never roasted (with heatgun and breadmaker) when I couldn't hear the beans crack.

As far as thermocouple placement, drill a hole through the side of the removable breadmaker hopper somewhere between where the stirring paddle is closest to the edge and the corner, about 1 inch to 1.5 inches from the bottom. Stick just the tip of the TC into the hole so that it extends barely 1/4 inch into the bowl, then press it toward the side. This placement works great for me. Actually I have 2 holes, one close to the bottom for small batches and a second one up about 1.5 inches for the full kilo batch. You'll have to find a creative way to keep the TC in the hole, because it will want to fall out. Then the TC cord just goes over the rim of the breadmaker.

CHAD