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renatoa
03/25/2024 12:38 PM
coffee drink, Ramper?

allenb
03/24/2024 12:10 PM
Siam3D Welcome

renatoa
03/23/2024 3:02 PM
welcome cup, andrewg

allenb
03/21/2024 5:10 PM
TRH629 Welcome

allenb
03/21/2024 5:08 PM
marimohead Welcome

In Memory Of Ginny
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Cost of coffee beans (green)
Omega
I'm sure that a lot of you are aware that coffee prices have risen to astronomical levels lately. I check coffee prices several times a day (along with crude oil and other things). The site I use is this one > http://www.finviz...tures.ashx
Coffee is found on the forth row from the top.

If you click on an individual commodity, you can see a price graph that goes back for a year, giving a good idea of where the prices have been and see those in relationship to current pricing.

Coffee hit $222 for a contract today. A year ago, it was about $118. It stands to reason that coffee is going to go way up for us, unless Brazil gets some rain, soon! (That's the reason for the spike, along with Coffee Leaf Rust).

Barry
 
allenb
I knew it was only a matter of time till the leaf rust plague (and other problems) drove costs up severely and I guess it's at our door step. We can only hope that there isn't a doubling of our green retail $ from our current suppliers. If this happens I think we'll have to seriously consider diving in head first into bulk buys only and share distribution duties.

Allen
1/2 lb and 1 lb drum, Siemens Sirocco fluidbed, presspot, chemex, cajun biggin brewer from the backwoods of Louisiana
 
Omega
Coffee went down again today, down $12 from it's high of a few days ago, but still far above it's normal trading range. I heard from a bean vendor that he was holding back on buying additional inventory until things settle down a bit.

Time will tell where all of this leads.

Barry
 
Omega
Coffee is at $191.50, way down from the all time high of $220 a few days ago. I'm sure that our suppliers are hoping the price will continue to normalize, I know that I am.

Barry
 
ginny
Hi Guys...

we are still paying less for our greens. i we bought the garbage they sell in cans and bags that was roasted up to 3 years ago we really would be paying a premium price.

I have not noticed my greens up too much.

ginny

rockon

Thom at SM has 10 pounds of his Columbian for 60 bucks and they are all different.
 
Omega
Coffee prices have dropped like a rock in recent days. Currently, the price is $148.65, the lowest price in over a year.

The price reduction is, in large part, due to easing of the drought in Brazil, the world's largest producer of coffee.

See the graph here > http://www.finviz....ashx?t=KC

Barry
 
ciel-007

Quote

Omega wrote:

Coffee prices have dropped like a rock in recent days. Currently, the price is $148.65, the lowest price in over a year.

The price reduction is, in large part, due to easing of the drought in Brazil, the world's largest producer of coffee.

See the graph here > http://www.finviz....ashx?t=KC

Barry


Barry, thanks for posting this.

Ciel
Edited by ciel-007 on 02/24/2015 1:19 PM
Ciel... seeking Heaven in my cup with ................................................................................................................. EXPOBAR Brewtus II - MAZZER Mini E - MAHLK?NIG Vario - GeneCafe - RAF-1 Extreme (Modified B-2 HOTTOP) - BellaTaiwan XJ-101
 
ciel-007
Here's another view of this dramatic decline from NASDAQ:

"End of Day Commodity Futures Price Quotes for Coffee"

Ciel
ciel-007 attached the following image:
coffee_nasdq.jpg

Edited by ciel-007 on 02/24/2015 1:21 PM
Ciel... seeking Heaven in my cup with ................................................................................................................. EXPOBAR Brewtus II - MAZZER Mini E - MAHLK?NIG Vario - GeneCafe - RAF-1 Extreme (Modified B-2 HOTTOP) - BellaTaiwan XJ-101
 
ginny
will it impact us a lot, maybe not ...


ginny
 
Omega

Quote

ginny wrote:

will it impact us a lot, maybe not ...


ginny


I talked to Matt at HappyMug when the cost of coffee was near the peak and he wasn't ordering coffee because of the impact that the futures market had on beans he wanted. He said that the market needed to "settle down" a little before he did any buying. He ran out of several varieties before the price dropped enough to make buying a bit less painful.

The ramp up in prices didn't affect us nearly like it did the big national roasters, since the avenues they purchase through hinge on the futures pricing. Most of the coffee we are interested in is bought directly from the farms or through small importers.

In reality, there was no shortage, just less of a surplus than usual. Speculators really mess things up sometimes.

Barry
 
HoldTheOnions
You like charts, take a gander at these,

Cocoa, Light Crude, Gold, Lean Hogs, Copper, Heating Oil, Coffee, Live Cattle, Orange Juice, Natural Gas, Sugar and Corn:

www.bmcharts.com/v/75h8sq.png

S&P 500:

www.bmcharts.com/v/a7zbnp.png

You can't make this stuff up.
 
ginny
so you are telling me what?


ginny
 
Omega

Quote

ginny wrote:

so you are telling me what?


ginny


Assuming that you were referring to me....

I merely pointed out that some of our suppliers ran out of some of their inventory, solely because of price fluctuations that took prices higher than they thought they could pass on.

So, some of us were affected. You might not have been, if you weren't ordering during one of the price spikes. I had to wait for the prices to come down, so that my source could restock items that I wanted, at a price that was about 10% higher than a few weeks earlier. I noticed several price increases on a number of beans that I had bought previously. Like 10 to 15% higher. The increase in prices wasn't a big factor for some folks, but it was there. I would prefer that prices decrease, personally.

If, on the other hand, you were referring to the charts posted, I don't have a clue what that's about. Shock

Barry
 
ginny
Thanks Barry I figured that out and I had a large inventory so I was not affected.

I was curious about the charts...

ginny

party
 
turtle
Around 100# still sitting around here in green so was not "in the loop" for the rise in prices.

i1066.photobucket.com/albums/u414/turtle-web/food/coffee/beans/bean_stash_8-24-2014_zps05298d9d.jpg
Mick - "Drinking in life one cup at a time"
"I'd rather be roasting coffee"

Roaster 1: San Franciscan SF-1
Roaster 2: Hottop B-2K+
Roaster 3: 2 kilo Chinese drum
Grinders: Mazzer Major - Forte BG (x3)
Pour over: Hario - Bee House - Chemex - Kalita - Bodum
Drip: Bunn CWTF15-1 & CW15-TC (commercials)
Espresso: Pasquini Livia 90 auto
Vacuum: Cona - Bodum
Press: Frieling - Bodum Colombia
 
snwcmpr
I have to wonder if the beans we buy are different than the beans in the market mentioned. Small lot, specialty coffees not the big purchases for large distribution. Don't we generally pay a bit more to get a bit more?

Ken in NC
--------------
Backwoods Roaster
"I wish I could taste as well as I wish I could roast."

As Abraham Lincoln said "Do not trust everything you read on the internet".
 
Omega

Quote

snwcmpr wrote:

I have to wonder if the beans we buy are different than the beans in the market mentioned. Small lot, specialty coffees not the big purchases for large distribution. Don't we generally pay a bit more to get a bit more?

Ken in NC


Yes, I think that we do pay quite a bit more for specialty grade coffee. I read a little article about Starbucks buying Papua New Guinea for about $1.38 per pound and selling it here for upwards of $24. Nice profit margin! thumbdown

The big roasters, obviously, buy lesser quality beans (I assume...) in huge quantity and enjoy the much lower price. They surely aren't buying micro lots of high quality beans.

Barry
 
Omega
Current coffee price is $140.20, down about 5% for the day. Compare that to $220 in mid-October last year!

Barry
 
ginny
There is a huge auction market on premium greens too, beans we will never see apparently...

will try to find the article that was in the WSJ a few weeks ago.


-g
 
HoldTheOnions

Quote

ginny wrote:

so you are telling me what?


ginny


Simply showing the degree to which the stock market has been manipulated by the Fed. The core philosophy of current central planning is to issue debt to pump up the stock market and then debase the currency to create inflation so in effect the value of the debt shrinks over time. They are trying to have their cake and eat it too, and so far it is actually working, but do you really think these guys are smarter than the markets? Trust me, many before have thought so.

Point being keep a good stock of those greens. Coffee prices aren't going to stay low, even if they stay the same, the value of the currency used to purchase them will continue to shrink. And don't waste time with physical gold and silver, starving people can't eat gold, but they do like a good cup of Joe ;-)
 
Omega
Coffee has been getting pounded (pun intended) as of late, it's price down by 6.5% in one day, down to $129.35! That has been the trend for about the last 3 or 4 months. Compare today's price to October 2014 price of over $220!

Take a look at the chart, here > http://www.finviz....ashx?t=KC

Barry
 
jkoll42
The prices shown on the graphs are for commodity 37500# contract bean orders. Does anyone know how much these commodity prices actually effect small lot specialty bean prices?
-Jon
Honey badger 1k, Bunn LPG-2E, Technivorm, Cimbali Max Hybrid, Vibiemme Double Domo V3
 
JETROASTER
Check the archived newsletters at Sweet Marias (Late 2013-2014) I seem to remember a good article on that subject.
Cheers, Scott
 
boar_d_laze

Quote

Omega wrote:

Coffee has been getting pounded (pun intended) as of late, it's price down by 6.5% in one day, down to $129.35! That has been the trend for about the last 3 or 4 months. Compare today's price to October 2014 price of over $220!

There's a lot of context here. Weather, hectares in production, expected crop yield, stock on hand, expected demand, politics (e.g.,, the willingness of a government to cave for the benefits of a large corporation), energy prices, etc.

However, the prime movers here are the strength of the dollar and the overall behavior of the commodities market. The dollar is very strong, especially compared to coffee producer's currencies, and commodities in general are much cheaper than they were not so very long ago.

Nobody really understand this stuff very well.

Rich
USRC 1lb Roaster, Chemex+Kone, Espro, Various FPs, Royal Siphon Vacuum, Yama Ice Drip Tower, Bunnzilla, La Cimbali M21 Casa, Ceado E92.
CookFoodGood
 
Omega

Quote

boar_d_laze wrote:

Quote

Omega wrote:

Coffee has been getting pounded (pun intended) as of late, it's price down by 6.5% in one day, down to $129.35! That has been the trend for about the last 3 or 4 months. Compare today's price to October 2014 price of over $220!

There's a lot of context here. Weather, hectares in production, expected crop yield, stock on hand, expected demand, politics (e.g.,, the willingness of a government to cave for the benefits of a large corporation), energy prices, etc.

However, the prime movers here are the strength of the dollar and the overall behavior of the commodities market. The dollar is very strong, especially compared to coffee producer's currencies, and commodities in general are much cheaper than they were not so very long ago.

Nobody really understand this stuff very well.

Rich


There may be other, lesser factors, that have influenced the price of coffee, but the prime mover in coffee futures has been the weather in Brazil.

The drought of last year caused the prices to skyrocket. The improving weather outlook has eased the concern over coffee yields from the world's largest producer of coffee.

Here's an article that goes into detail > http://www.azerne...78289.html

Excerpt from the article:
"After surging as much as 11 percent to 2015?s high in mid- January, rains in Brazil improved crop prospects and prices are now at the lowest in a year. Bull-to-bear market gyrations spurred by changing weather in the country, the world?s biggest producer and exporter, drove coffee to be the most-volatile commodity in the past year.
Brazil?s most-severe drought in decades damaged crops in early 2014, and traders spent the rest of the year tracking rains as prices surged 50 percent. Above-normal precipitation in the past month has replenished dry soils, according to MDA Weather Services, and moisture levels are adequate in most growing areas.
?Weather conditions are near perfect in Brazil, and there are no crop concerns anymore,? James Cordier, founder of Optionsellers.com in Tampa, Florida, said in a telephone interview. ?Concerns from the drought last year were overblown. Because many trees are young, they were able to rebound and are probably going to produce nicely this year and the next one.?

Barry
 
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